Experts the USDA lowered the forecast of world production and consumption of wheat
In the August report, the experts, the USDA increased its projections of world production and initial stocks of wheat in 2020/21 MG, and lowered its assessment of consumption, resulting in ending stocks reached a record level.
Unexpected for the market was the increase in the initial wheat stocks by 3.79 million tonnes to 300,9 million tonnes, primarily as a result of their viewing for the EU from 11.8 to of 15.36 million tonnes, which increases the total volume of proposals.
compared to the July estimates forecast global wheat production in 2020/21 MG increased with 769,31 to 766 million tonnes, 2 million tonnes more than in 2019/20 Mr.
most of all have lowered production forecasts for the EU – 4 million tons to its lowest since 2007, the level of 135.5 million tonnes (154.9 million tons in 2019), Kazakhstan – by 1 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes (11,45 million tons in 2019) and Argentina by 0.5 million tons to 19.5 million tonnes (19.8 million tonnes in 2019), while raised them to Brazil by 1.1 million tonnes to 6.8 million tonnes (5.2 million tonnes in 2019) and Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 27 million tons (29,17 million tons in 2019), United States by 0.4 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes 952,26 million tons in 2019), Russia 1.5 million tons to 78 million tons (73.6 million tons in 2019), where local analysts estimate the crop at 80-81 million tonnes To Australia's production forecast was left unchanged.
Estimate world consumption of wheat decreased by 1.5 million tonnes to 750,1 million tons, while the forecast of world exports left at 188 million tons compared with 185.7 million tonnes of season 2019/20. The reduction of exports from EU 27 to 25.5 million tons(36.5 million tons in 2019), Kazakhstan by 0.8 million tonnes to 6.3 million tonnes (6.5 million tonnes in 2019) and Argentina from 14.5 to 14 million tons (13.5 million tons in 2019) will be covered by the increase of Russia from 36 to 37.5 million tonnes (33.5 million tonnes in 2019), Ukraine with 17.5 to 18 million tons (20.5 million tons in 2019) and the United States from 25.86 to 26.54 million tons.
In comparison with the previous report forecast world ending stocks of wheat in 2020/21 MG increased with 314,8 to 316,79 million tonnes (300,9 million tons in 2019), primarily due to higher stocks in the EU.
After yesterday's speculative growth, the September wheat futures in Chicago resumed its decline under pressure of "bearish" USDA report.
the September wheat futures in the U.S. fell:
0.18 $/t to 180,87 $/t on a firm spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.
- 1.38 $/t to 180,50 $/t for SRW soft winter-wheat in Chicago
Rose by 0,37 $/t to 153,49 $/MT of hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas city.