Experts the USDA lowered the forecast of soybean production in Brazil and Argentina

2020-04-10 12:07:05
Machine translation
Experts the USDA lowered the forecast of soybean production in Brazil and Argentina

If in the March report, the experts, the USDA has dramatically increased the forecasts of world production and reserves of soybeans, in April the balance had to be reduced due to reduced production in Brazil and Argentina, as well as increasing imports by China.


compared To the March report from the global initial stocks were reduced 1 million tons to 110,8 million tons, the forecast of world production is 3.68 million tonnes to 338,08 mln t, and ending stocks by 2 million tonnes to 100,45 million tons.


Dramatic changes in the global balance surprised market participants who expected reduction in carryover stocks only 0.5% to 101,9 million tons.


For Brazil in comparison with the previous report, the forecast soybean production is reduced 1.5 million tons to 126 124,5 million tons (117 million tons in 2018/19 MG), for Argentina by 2 million tons to 52 million tons (55.3 million tons in 2018/19 MG), which is almost in line with expert expectations.


Forecast consumption and processing of soybean in Argentina was reduced by 2 million tons due to reduced global demand for soybean meal.


Evaluation of soybean imports to China increased by 1 million tonnes to 89 million tonnes as a result of enhancing supply from Brazil and the growth in ending stocks.


For U.S. export forecast for soybeans was reduced by 1.3 million tons to 48.3 million tons due to increased competition from Brazil, with the result that ending stocks will grow by 13% to 13,077 million tonnes, although analysts had estimated them at 12 million tons.


For Brazil, the estimate exports increased 1.5 million tons to 78.5 million tons, resulting in ending stocks will decrease by 3.5 million tons до29,7 million tons, matching last year's level.


the May soybean futures in Chicago after the publication of the report increased 0.5% to 317,17 $/t. However, further increase will limit the projections of reduced domestic demand for soybean oil in the United States from the biodiesel industry by 3.8% and food – at 1,3% - for events associated with the epidemic Covid -19.