USDA experts have increased their forecast for wheat production and stocks in my 2021/22
After a sharp decline in the forecast of global wheat production in the August USDA report, market participants expected a neutral balance in September. However, USDA experts revised the indicators of production and initial reserves, as a result of which the forecast of global supply for 2021/22 MG increased by 7.1 million tons to 1072.8 million tons.
Rating initial inventory wheat in my 2021/22 increased by 3.73 million tons to 292.56 million tons due to a reduction in exports and consumption in the previous season.
Forecast global wheat production in my 2021/22, it was increased by 3.37 million tons to 780.28 million tons (775.84 million tons in my 2020/21 and 763.5 million tons in my 2019/20), in particular for Australia – by 1.5 million tons to 31.5 million tons, India – by 1.5 million tons to 109.52 million tons, China – by 0.9 million tons to 136.9 million tons, although it was reduced for Canada by 1 million tons to 23 million tons and Argentina – by 0.5 million tons to 20 million tons. for Russia and Kazakhstan, production estimates remained unchanged, although in October they may be revised based on the results of harvesting.
Forecast global wheat consumption in my 2021/22, it was increased by 3 million tons to 789.63 million tons (780.87 million tons in my 2020/21 and 748.33 million tons in my 2019/20) due to the more active use of wheat for feed.
Rating global final reserves wheat in 2021/22 MG increased by 4.2 million tons to 283.2 million tons (292.56 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 299.22 million tons in 2019/20 MG), although analysts estimated them at 279 million tons.
Forecast global wheat trade increased by 1.5 million tons to 199.7 million tons due to an increase in the export estimate for Australia by 1 million tons to 23 million tons, India – by 0.8 million tons to 3.5 million tons, which compensates for its reduction for Canada by 0.5 million tons to 17 million tons. for Russia, the United States and Ukraine, the forecasts remained almost unchanged.
After the release of the new USDA report, wheat prices declined slightly, but traders do not expect further significant price movements, as they understand that production estimates may be lowered in the near future, especially for Canada and Kazakhstan, and the data of the new report is already significantly lower than the June and July balance sheets.
