USDA experts have sharply increased forecasts of world production and stocks of corn

Russia's senseless war against Ukraine is not only steadily increasing the number of victims directly in the conflict zone, but also raising world grain prices, leading to a reduction in trade.

Against the background of long-term port blockade, the forecast for corn exports from Ukraine was reduced by another 4.5 million tons to 23 million tons, while in March it was lowered by 6 million tons.

In the April balance sheet, USDA experts increased their forecast for initial stocks and world production of corn, while reducing estimates of exports and imports, which will lead to an increase in final stocks in 2021/22 MY.

Compared to the March report, the new balance of corn for 2021/22 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was increased by 0.7 million tons to 292.15 million tons (306.37 million tons in 2020/21 MY).
• The forecast of world production was increased by 4.31 million tons to 1210.45 million tons (1123.28 million tons in 2020/21 MY), in particular for Brazil - by 2 million tons to 116 (87) million tons, which will exceed the expectations of experts in 115 million tons and Conab in 115.9 million tons. The harvest estimate was also increased for Indonesia, Pakistan and the EU, while for Argentina it remained at 53 (51.5) million tons.
• Estimates of world consumption increased by 0.53 million tons to 1,197.15 million tons (113.37 million tons in 2020/21 MY). The sharp decline in consumption in China by 3 million tons to 291 million tons partially offsets its increase in Ukraine by 2.3 million tons to 13 million tons, Brazil - by 0.5 million tons and PSA countries.
• The forecast of world exports was reduced by 2.9 million tons to 197 million tons (181.76 million tons in 2020/21 MP0, in particular for Ukraine - by 4.5 million tons (-10.5 million tons since the beginning of the war) to 23 23.8) million tons, which partially offsets its increase for Brazil by 1.5 million tons to 44.5 (21.02) million tons. For Argentina, the forecast was left at 39 (39.5) million tons, as in However, it is unclear why the USDA did not raise its corn export forecast for the United States.
• The estimate of world imports was reduced by 3.52 million tons to 182.11 (185.6) million tons, in particular for China - by 3 million tons to 23 (29.51) million tons, which is almost in line with the forecasts of Chinese analysts at 20 million tons The import forecast was lowered for Chile and Bangladesh, but increased for Iran due to increased supplies from Russia.
• The forecast of world final reserves increased by 4.49 million tons to 305.46 million tons (292.15 million tons in 2020/21 MY), primarily for Ukraine - by 2.2 million tons to 6.5 (0.8) million tons, the EU - by 0.95 to 8.68 (7.88) million tons, as well as for the countries of Southeast Asia.

May futures for the bearish report responded, as usual, by an increase of 1.5% to $ 302.6 / t, adding 0.9% for the month.

Traders expect in the new season to reduce crops and intensify corn exports to the United States amid blocking exports to Ukraine.

May futures for Black Sea corn in Chicago on Friday fell 2.3% to $ 357.75 / t, losing 3.3% month-on-month.