USDA experts have raised forecasts for world production of soybeans and sunflowers, in particular for Ukraine

In a November report, USDA experts raised the forecast for world production of oilseeds by 2 million tons to 661.46 million tons, which will significantly exceed the 631.3 million tons of the 2022/23 season. Estimates of the harvest of soybeans and rapeseed in the Russian Federation, soybeans and sunflowers in Ukraine, and soybeans in the USA increased the most.

Compared to the October estimates, the balance of soybeans for 2023/24 MR underwent the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was reduced by 1.6 to 100.3 (98.06) million tons due to the adjustment of data for China and Brazil for FY 2021/22 and FY 2022/23. For China, starting stocks were lowered due to lower soybean imports in 2021/22 and 2022/23 FY, while for Brazil they were raised due to an increase in the 2022/23 FY 2022 crop estimate to 158 million t.
• The global production forecast was increased by 0.92 to 400.42 (372.24) million tons, in particular for the USA – by 0.69 to 112.39 (116.22) million tons and Ukraine – by 0.4 to 5.2 million tons due to good productivity. Despite the unfavorable weather during sowing for the countries of South America, the estimates were left unchanged.
• The estimate of world exports was left at the level of 168.24 (170.86) million tons.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was reduced by 1.11 to 114.51 million t (100.31 million t in 2022/23 MR, 99.7 million t in 2021/22 MR and 100.3 million t in 2020/21 MR), while analysts estimate them at 115 million tons. For the US and Brazil, the estimate of reserves has been increased, and for China, it has been reduced due to the adjustment of opening balances.

According to the report, November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday fell by 1.7% to $487.9/t (-2.9% compared to the data after the October report).

At the same time, the USDA increased the forecast of the world rapeseed harvest in 2023/24 MR by 0.5 million tons, in particular for the EU - by 0.1 to 20.1 million tons and the Russian Federation - by 0.5 to 4 million tons.

The forecast of the world sunflower harvest in 2023/24 was increased by 0.56 to 57 (52.383) million tons, in particular for Ukraine - by 0.5 to 14.5 (12.2) million tons.

Estimates of sunflower processing and export in FY 2023/24 for key countries remained almost unchanged.