USDA experts have raised the forecast for sunflower oil production in Ukraine, Argentina and the Russian Federation

In the October report, USDA experts increased the forecast of global production of sunflower oil in 2023/24 from 21.65 to 22.03 million tons, which will exceed the 21.5 million tons of the 2022/23 season, compared to the September estimates.

Thus, for Ukraine, the forecast was increased by 379 thousand tons to 6.02 million tons (5.9 million tons in 2022/23 MR), for Argentina - by 0.168 to 1.69 (1.69) million tons, for the Russian Federation - by 0.166 to 6.7 (6.3) million tons.

The forecast for the world export of sunflower oil in 2023/24 MY was increased by 0.725 to 13.82 million tons (13.86 million tons in 2022/23 MY), in particular for Ukraine – by 0.3 to 5.6 million tons, Argentina – by 0.1 to 1 million tons, for the Russian Federation - by 0.1 to 4.2 million tons.

The forecast for the import of sunflower oil was increased for India by 0.5 to 2.7 million tons and for the EU - by 0.1 to 2.3 million tons. And the forecast for the consumption of sunflower oil was increased for India by 0.5 to 2.8 million tons , while for the EU it was left unchanged at the level of 5.4 million tons.

The forecast of the world final reserves of sunflower oil in 2023/24 MY was reduced from 3.02 to 2.9 million tons (2.95 million tons in 2022/23 MY), in particular for the EU - from 346 to 244 (161) thousand tons, Ukraine - from 98 to 93 (38) thousand tons, the Russian Federation - from 475 to 358 (318) thousand tons, while it was increased for India - from 407 to 464 (519) thousand tons.

WASDE experts increased the forecast of world production of sunflower in 2023/24 compared to September estimates by 0.55 to 56.42 million tons (52.4 million tons in 2022/23), primarily for Argentina - by 0.8 to 4 .7 million tons.

It is expected that in the main producer countries, sunflower processing will increase in 2023/24 FY, in particular in Ukraine - by 0.7 to 14 million tons (the estimate for 2022/23 FY has been increased by 0.8 to 13.8 million tons), the Russian Federation - by 0.4 to 16.4 million tons (estimate for 2022/23 MR increased by 0.1 to 15.35 million tons), in Argentina - by 0.4 to 4 million tons, while for the EU the forecast of processing has been reduced by 0.3 to 9.6 million tons.

The forecast for sunflower exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 FY has been reduced by 0.45 to 0.5 million tons (1.9 million tons in 2022/23 FY) as a result of increased processing volumes.