USDA experts raise sunflower production forecast and lower 2024/25 soybean and canola crop estimates

In the October WASDE supply and demand report, USDA experts left the forecast for world production of oilseeds in FY 2024/25 at 687.32 million tons (657.56 million tons in FY 2023/24), although the forecast for sunflower production was increased by 0.14 million t, and rape and soybeans decreased by 0.12 and 0.28 million tons, respectively.

Sunflower production estimates are increased for Argentina and Moldova due to increased acreage, while soybean production forecasts are lowered for Ukraine and rapeseed for the EU, Moldova and Ukraine due to low yields and reduced acreage.

Compared to the September estimates, the new soybean balance for FY 2024/25 is almost unchanged:

• The estimate of initial reserves was increased by 0.12 to 112.37 million tons (100.92 million tons in FY 2023/24).
• The global production forecast was reduced by 0.28 to 428.92 million tons (394.71 million tons in 2023/24 MR and 378.4 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in particular for Ukraine – by 0.2 to 6.6 million tons and the USA - by 0.1 to 124.7 (113.34) million tons. For Brazil and Argentina, forecasts were left unchanged at 169 and 51 million tons, respectively, which will significantly exceed the indicators of the previous season.
• The forecast of world consumption was reduced by 0.26 to 402.72 (383.8) million tons.
• The estimate of world exports was reduced by 0.1 to 181.53 (176.87) million tons, in particular for Ukraine - by 0.1 to 4.2 million tons.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was raised by 0.07 to 134.65 million tons (112.37 million tons, 99.7 million tons and 100.3 million tons).

According to the report, November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell by 1% to $369.3/t (-0.5% compared to the data after the September report). Rainfall predicted in the central regions of Brazil will increase pressure on soybean prices in the near future.

The forecast of global rapeseed production for 2024/25 was reduced by 0.12 to 87.44 (89.13) million tons, in particular for the EU - by 0.2 to 17.45 (19.98) million tons and Ukraine - by 0 .1 to 3.6 million tons (although only 3.4 million tons were collected), but increased for China by 0.2 to 15.8 (16.32) million tons. For Canada and Australia, the forecasts were left at 20 and 5 .5 million tons, respectively.

The estimate of world rapeseed exports was increased by 0.1 to 17.37 (17.81) million tons, in particular for Canada – by 0.35 to 7.35 (6.75) million tons, although the estimate for Australia was lowered by 0.1 to 4.65 million tons and Ukraine - by 0.1 to 3.22 million tons. The import forecast for the EU was increased by 0.1 to 6.7 (5.46) million tons.

The forecast of world final stocks of rapeseed was reduced by 0.3 to 8.05 (10.15) million tons.

On the report, November canola futures on the Paris MATIF rose 0.6% to €499.25/t or $546/t (+7% on the month), while canola in Winnipeg rose 0.6% to 614.4 CAD/t or $446.5/t (+9.7% for the month).

The forecast of world production of sunflower for 2024/25 MR was increased by 0.2 to 50.7 (56.05) million tons, in particular for Argentina - by 0.2 to 4 million tons. Harvest estimates for Ukraine remained unchanged - 12.5 ( 15.5) million tons, the Russian Federation - 16 million tons, the EU - 9.5 (10) million tons, and Turkey - 1.55 million tons.

The estimate of global sunflower consumption was increased by 0.4 to 51.3 (56.6) million tons due to increased processing in the EU and Argentina, and the forecast of final stocks was left at the level of 2.34 (3.18) million tons.

The results of canola harvesting in Canada and Australia and sunflower in Ukraine and the Russian Federation will influence the sunflower and rapeseed markets in the near future, while the acceleration of soybean planting in Brazil will contribute to the decrease in global soybean prices.