USDA experts raised their forecast for the global wheat harvest to a record 794.44 million tons
USDA experts in the June report, as in the May report, sharply increased forecasts for wheat production and consumption, as well as global final stocks in 2021/22 MG due to a drop in export rates at the end of the season, although analysts expected a slight adjustment.
In the global balance sheet for my 2021/22 forecast world-class production wheat increased by 5.46 million tons to a record 794.44 million tons (775.8 million tons in 2020/21 and 763.5 million tons in 2019/20 MG) due to an increase in crop estimates for the EU by 3.5 million tons to 137.5 million tons, the United States by 0.71 million tons to 51.66 million tons, Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 29.5 million tons and Russia by 1 million tons to 86 million tons at the same time, Russian agencies estimate the wheat harvest at 80-82 million tons, in particular, recently the Icarus agency raised the estimate by 2 million tons to 82 million tons. the drought in the United States worsens the condition of spring wheat crops, so experts do not believe in the possibility of increasing production compared to last year.
Forecast global consumption wheat in 2021/22 MG increased by 2.44 million tons to a record 791.12 million tons (781.55 million tons in 2020/21 and 748.33 million tons in 2019/20 MG) due to an increase in feed consumption in the EU and Russia by 1 million tons, respectively.
Rating global final reserves wheat in 2021/22 MG increased by 1.84 million tons to 296.8 million tons (293.48 million tons in 2020/21 and 299.22 million tons in 2019/20 mg), while analysts predict them at 294.5 million tons.
Despite the" bullish " nature of the USDA's June balance sheet, wheat quotes on all US stock exchanges rose against the background of hot and dry weather in the Northern American Plain.
July US futures rose:
- by 0 0.55 / ton to Чикаго 251.23/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
- by 1 1.65 / ton to H 235.25/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
- by 4 4.13 / ton to.284.94 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.
However, in the near future, the impact of the updated global balance sheet on the stock exchange will increase, so improving weather conditions in the United States may turn quotes down.