USDA experts raised their forecast for global corn production and stocks, leading to a drop in prices

USDA experts in the April supply and demand report for the 2025/26 MY increased global production, consumption and export forecasts, as well as ending stocks, which increased pressure on stock quotes.

The sharp increase in oil prices caused by the war with Iran failed to significantly support the prices of corn, which is a raw material for the production of biofuels.

May corn futures in Chicago fell 0.7% yesterday to $174.8/t (-2.4% since the March report and unchanged since the start of the war), although December futures are trading $12/t higher on expectations of a smaller US crop. At the same time, the US corn forecast for 2025/26 MY remained unchanged.

Compared to March estimates, the world corn balance for the 2025/26 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast for opening stocks was increased by 0.46 million tons to 296.28 (315.25 in 2024/25 MY) million tons due to an adjustment to the harvest estimate in the previous season.
• The forecast for world production was increased by 3.63 million tons to 1301.07 (1231.38) million tons, in particular for India - by 2 million tons, South Africa - by 0.8 million tons to 17.3 (17.3) million tons and the Russian Federation - by 0.3 million tons to 14.8 (14) million tons. The harvest estimate for Brazil and Argentina was left unchanged.
• The forecast for global consumption has been increased by 2 million tons to 1,302.55 (1,250.35) million tons, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 52 million tons.
• The global export forecast was increased by 0.44 million tonnes to 207.3 (187.15) million tonnes, mainly for India, the Russian Federation and South Africa. Export forecasts for Ukraine, Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged.
• The forecast for world imports has been increased by 0.42 million tons to 193.1 (186.2) million tons, in particular for Turkey and Morocco, which compensates for the decrease in supplies to Iran and Indonesia.
• The forecast for ending stocks was increased by 2.1 million tons to 294.8 (296.28) million tons, mainly for India and South Africa, which exceeded analysts' estimates by 1.8 million tons.

Corn prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from declining stock market quotes and increased competition with Argentine corn, but they may be supported by increased demand from Turkey, which will re-export some of its corn to Iran.