USDA experts minimally changed the world wheat balance, but lowered export estimates for Ukraine and the Russian Federation

In the January supply and demand report, USDA experts slightly increased the forecast for world production, reduced the forecasts for wheat consumption and exports, which led to an increase in the estimate of world ending stocks above the level predicted by analysts. Against this background, stock quotes remained without significant changes, despite the growth of corn futures by 3%.

According to the report, March wheat futures rose slightly:

• by 0.3% to $202.7/t – for HRW durum winter wheat in Kansas City (+0.5% compared to data after the release of the December report),
• by 0.1% to $214.7/t - for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+0.4%),
• by 1.8% to 233 €/t or 238.7 $/t – wheat futures on Paris Euronext (+1.7%).

At the same time, futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago fell by 0.5% to $195/t (-2.2%).

Additionally, prices were influenced by reports on grain stocks and winter wheat plantings in the United States. Wheat stocks in the United States as of December 1 amounted to 42.7 million tons, which is 4 million tons higher than last year and slightly higher than the average trade forecast. Winter wheat for the 2025 harvest in the United States was sown on 34.115 million acres, which is 725 thousand acres more than last year.

Compared to December estimates, the new world wheat balance for the 2024/25 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The initial reserve estimate was left at 267.47 million tons (274.27 million tons in 2023/24 MY).
• The global production forecast is raised by 0.29 to 793.24 million tonnes (791.24 million tonnes in 2023/24 MY and 789 million tonnes in 2022/23 MY), as increased production in Syria and Pakistan offset a decline in Uruguay. The forecasts for Argentina, Canada and Australia remained unchanged, although analysts had expected an increase in the estimate for Australia.
• The estimate of world consumption has been reduced by 0.58 to 801.89 (797.83) million tons, primarily for Turkey, which is partially offset by an increase in consumption in Ukraine by 0.3 to 6.7 (6.7) million tons.
• The forecast for world exports has been reduced by 1.65 to 212 (221.22) million tons, in particular for the Russian Federation - by 1 to 46 (55.5) million tons and for Ukraine - by 0.5 to 16 (18.58) million tons.
• The forecast for world imports has been reduced by 1.07 to 208.48 (221.83) million tons, in particular for China - by 0.5 to 10.5 (13.64) million tons.
• The estimate of world ending stocks was raised by 0.94 to 258.82 (267.47) million tonnes, although analysts did not expect them to change. The increase in stocks in the Russian Federation, Brazil, Nigeria and Ukraine will be partially offset by their reduction in Turkey, China and Indonesia.

Wheat prices remain under pressure from increased supply from Australia and Argentina, as well as low demand from major global importers, so their further growth is possible only if weather conditions are unfavorable for winter wheat sowing in the Russian Federation and Ukraine.