UKAB experts forecast a 45% reduction in the area sown under grain crops in Ukraine in 2023, and a 60% reduction in the harvest

The impact of Russia's military aggression on Ukraine's economy will intensify in 2023 and, according to experts of the Ukrainian Agricultural Business Club (UKAB), will lead to significant changes in the agricultural sector. Thus, compared to the pre-war year 2021, the area of grain crops can be reduced by 45%, and the grain harvest - by 60%.

Of the 28.4 million hectares of cultivated land in Ukraine in 2021, 86% or 24.6 million hectares remained in controlled territories as of December, of which 3.8 million hectares cannot be sown due to proximity to the front line.

In comparison with 2021, the area of winter crops in the controlled territories decreased by 26% to 3.8 million hectares, and in the entire territory of Ukraine - by 43%. The area of winter wheat sowing in the central and north-eastern regions has been critically reduced.

The reason was expensive logistics, limited exports and a large difference in price depending on the region, as in areas close to ports or borders with the EU, prices are much higher, although they are also unprofitable for producers. If in Transcarpathia, 1 ton of corn costs UAH 6,800 (including VAT), then in Sumy Oblast it costs UAH 4,900, so the geography of the region will determine the ability of farmers to continue producing grain.

Given the expensive logistics, the share of grain crops will be reduced in favor of oil crops, the price of which on the world market is twice as high as that of grain. Therefore, for the first time in history, more oil crops will be sown than grain crops. According to forecasts, 8.7 million hectares will be sown with grain in 2023, which will be 22% less than the figure in 2022, and 45% less than in 2021. 9.7 million hectares will be sown with oilseeds, which will exceed the figure of 2022 by 32% and 2021 – by 9%.

As a result of a 50-60% decrease in the use of fertilizers, corn left for the winter in the fields and a lack of finances, the yield will decrease by 10-30%, depending on the regions and crops. Accordingly, the gross harvest of grain will amount to 34 million tons, which will be 37% less than the 2022 figure, and 60% less than the 2021 figure. The gross collection of oilseeds will amount to 19.3 million tons, which will be 13% higher than in 2022, but 15% lower than in 2021.

Exports of grain and oilseeds in FY 2023/24 will be 35 million tons or 3 million tons per month, while in FY 2021/22 it was 85 million tons or 7 million tons per month.

According to the forecast of COCERAL, in 2023, thanks to favorable weather, the EU countries + Great Britain will increase the grain harvest compared to the previous year from 285.1 million tons to a record 304.4 million tons, in particular, the production of wheat - from 140.7 to 143.2 million tons , barley - from 50.7 to 64.5 million tons. Rapeseed production will decrease from 20.6 to 20.4 million tons, although the sowing area will increase, but the yield will be lower than in 2022.