Strategie Grains experts have increased the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU in 2025

Against the backdrop of favorable weather and an increase in sowing areas, Strategie Grains experts have increased the forecast for rapeseed production in the EU in 2025/26 MY from 18.74 to 19 million tons compared to previous estimates, which will exceed the 2024/25 MY figure by 13%. The crop estimate has been increased for the main producing countries, in particular Romania and Poland. The forecast for ending rapeseed stocks in the 2024/25 season has been increased due to reduced demand and a possible decrease in imports.

At the same time, the forecast for sunflower production has been reduced to 10.4 million tons, which will still exceed the 2024/25 MY harvest by 25%, since part of the area is planned to be sown with rapeseed instead of soybeans.

The soybean production forecast has been increased by 100 thousand tons to 3.2 million tons, so the EU will cross the 3 million tons mark for the first time this year.

The difficult balance for vegetable oils will persist in the 2025/25 season, particularly for rapeseed, soybean, and palm oil. Only sunflower oil may be in surplus due to its large production volume and low competitiveness.

EU sunflower and rapeseed prices in 2024/25 MY have the potential to grow, as seed and vegetable oil balances still remain complex, Strategie Grains believes.

In January, rapeseed futures on Euronext rose to a nearly 2-year high, in line with other oilseed markets.