Strategie Grains experts raised the forecast for the EU rapeseed harvest to 20 million tons

Strategie Grains experts have raised their forecast for EU rapeseed production in 2023 from 19.5 to 20 million tonnes compared to April estimates, thanks to favorable weather in most of Europe, which will exceed last year's 19.4 million tonnes.

At the same time, the forecast for this year's sunflower production in the EU has been reduced by 100,000 tons to 11.2 million tons, which will exceed the 2022 figure by 2 million tons, since a significant reduction in the harvest in Spain, which is suffering from drought, will be partially compensated by an increase in yields in other regions .

An increase in rapeseed production will increase supply pressure on prices, especially given the significant stocks at the end of the current season, so experts expect further declines in Euronext quotations. However, prices can be supported by the ban on the import of rapeseed from Ukraine by the eastern EU countries.

The EU's decision to limit the import of Ukrainian rapeseed from May 1 until the end of 2023 may lead to the fact that producers in Ukraine will not sell their rapeseed, given the blocking of supplies from Black Sea ports. This puts significant pressure on the forward prices of rapeseed in Ukraine.

August rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange fell 4.4% last week to €438.25/t or $481.5/t on the back of improved prospects for the EU rapeseed crop.