StatCan experts lowered forecasts for wheat and canola crops in Canada more than the USDA

Yesterday's updated report on the production of cereals and oilseeds in Canada from the Statistical Office StatCan, as expected, significantly lowered the forecasts for the harvest of major crops. Prolonged drought led to an acceleration of the maturation period of plants by 2-4 weeks, as a result of which the yield significantly decreased.

It is expected that whole wheat production in Canada, in my 2021/22, it will decrease by 34.8% compared to the previous season from 35.2 to the lowest 22.9 million tons in the last 14 years, which almost corresponds to the average analyst estimate of 22.6 million tons, but is significantly lower than the August USDA forecast of 24 million tons.

Wheat production in the country will decrease primarily due to a decrease in yields and a reduction in the area under spring wheat, the yield of which will fall by 37.7% to 16.1 million tons, and the production of durum wheat will fall by 39.2% to 4 million tons. at the same time, the winter wheat harvest will increase by 2.8% to 2.8 million tons.

Canola production it will decrease by 24.3% compared to last year from 19.5 to the lowest 14.7 million tons since 2012, which will exceed the average analyst estimate of 14.1 million tons, but will be lower than the August USDA forecast of 16 million tons.

Despite the increase in sowing areas by 8% compared to the previous season barley production it will decrease by 27% from 10.7 to 7.8 million tons due to a 32.4% decrease in yield.

Soybean production it will decrease by 8.4% to 5.8 million tons due to a decrease in yield by 12.5%, although the area sown this year increased by 4.8% to 5.3 million acres.

At the same time, the forecast corn production increased by 0.8% from 13.6 to 13.7 million tons due to better yields, which compensates for the reduction of areas before harvesting by 2.3%.

Heavy rains have fallen across Canada in recent weeks, which have reduced drought events in the provinces of Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba, which are the country's main agricultural regions. However, this precipitation will only delay the harvesting of spring wheat and canola, and if they continue for another week, they may even worsen the quality of grain and yield.

In the province of Alberta, 23% of barley, 15% of wheat and 1% of canola crops have already been threshed, in Saskatchewan, 29% of the area has been harvested, compared to 12% on average over 5 years, in particular, spring wheat – on 25% of the area. In the province of Manitoba, 30% of the area was harvested, including spring wheat – by 63%, barley – by 76% and canola – by 2%.