StatCan analysts cut canola and corn crop forecasts, but raised wheat, soybeans and barley

Statistics Canada (StatCan) released harvest estimates for major crops on December 5. The report is based on a survey of 27,200 farmers, while previous reports for August and September were based on models using satellite images. Compared to September estimates, wheat harvest forecasts have been increased, while canola, soybean, corn, and barley forecasts have been decreased.

Canada's 2024/25 wheat crop is expected to grow 6.1% year-over-year to 34.96 million tons (USDA estimated it at 34.4 million tons in September), which is in line with analysts' estimates. Durum wheat acreage increased 8% to 6.3 million acres, yield increased 32.8% to 34 bushels/acre, and total production increased 43.6% to 5.9 million tons. Spring wheat acreage fell 2.5% to 18.7 million acres, but production rose 2.2% to 26.1 million tons thanks to a 4.9% increase in yield to 51.3 bushels/acre.

The forecast for canola production has been reduced compared to estimates in September from 18.98 to 17.8 million tons, which is inferior to the average estimate of analysts (18.51 million tons) and is 7% less than the 19.19 million tons collected in 2023/24 MR . Dry and hot weather in July and August in parts of Western Canada reduced yields by 7% to 36 bushels/acre, although area to harvest was down just 0.1% to 21.9 million acres.

In Saskatchewan (the main canola production region), yields fell 3% to 35.9 bushels/acre and harvested area fell 2.2% to 12 million acres, so production fell 5.1% to 9.8 million tons. In Alberta, production fell 8.5% to 5.1 million tonnes due to a 9% decline in yield to 35.6 bushels/acre, although acreage rose 0.6% to 6.3 million acres. In Manitoba, acreage rose 6.2% to 3.3 million acres, but a 16.3% decline in yields due to difficult early-season weather to 37.1 bushels/acre led to an 11.1% decline in production to 2, 8 million tons

StatCan experts have raised their forecasts for the harvest of major crops compared to September estimates:

• corn - from 15.17 to 15.35 million tons, which is 0.5% lower than last year's 15.42 million tons;
• barley - from 7.6 to 8.14 million tons, which is 8.5% less than last year's 8.91 million tons;
• soybeans - from 7.2 to 7.57 million tons, which will exceed last year's 6.98 million tons by 8.4%;
• oats - from 3.02 to 3.36 million tons, which will exceed last year's 2.64 million tons by 27.1%.

At the same time, the harvest forecasts of the following crops were reduced:

• peas - from 3.16 to 3 million tons, which will exceed last year's 2.61 million tons by 14.9%,
• lentils - from 2.59 to 2.43 million tons, which will exceed last year's 1.8 million tons by 35%.