StatCan experts have increased their forecasts for the harvest of grain and oil crops in Canada
As expected, in the updated report, experts from the StatCan Bureau of Statistics raised the forecasts for the production of grain and oil crops compared to the non-harvest year of 2021. At the same time, estimates for wheat and canola crops were lower than in the USDA's August forecast.
In Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario, the weather has been conducive to crop development, with only dry conditions in much of Saskatchewan holding back a record 2020 crop.
According to StatCan, the country's wheat production in FY 2022/23 is expected to increase by 55.1% compared to the previous season, from 21.6 to 34.6 million tons (35.2 million tons in FY 2020/21), while the USDA in August estimated it at 35 million tons. The increase in wheat production is due to a 9.4% increase in planted area to 24.9 million acres and a 41.6% increase in yield to 51.1 bushels/acre. In particular, spring wheat acreage increased by 12.5% to 17.8 million acres, and yields increased by 39.8% to 52.7 bushels/acre.
Canadian canola production in FY 2022/23 will grow by 41.7% from 12.6 to 19.5 million tonnes (as in 2020) due to a 47.8% increase in yields to 40.5 bushels/acre amid favorable weather in the prairies.
In Saskatchewan, a major producer of canola, the crop is up 43.2% year-over-year to 9.7 million tonnes, thanks to a 50.8% increase in yield to 37.7 bushels/acre, although acreage to harvest is down 5 .1% to 11.3 million acres due to excessive spring rains. In Alberta, the canola crop will grow 49.1% to 6.5 million tons, with yields up 53.3% to 44.3 bushels/acre, although planted area will decrease 2.8% to 6.4 million acres. In Manitoba, the canola crop is up 26.5% to 3.2 million tonnes, with yields up 31.5% to 43 bushels/acre, although planted area is down 3.8% to 3.3 million acres.
Barley production will rise 34.3% from last season to 9.3 million tons, as a 57.7% increase in yield to 67.8 bushels/acre offset a 14.8% decline in planted area to 6.3 million acres .
Soybean production will rise 1.8% to 6.4 million tons as a 3.7% increase in yield to 45.3 bushels/acre offset a 1.7% decline in preharvest area to 5.2 million acres.
Corn production will increase by 6% to 14.8 million tons, with yields up 2.3% to 163.9 bushels/acre, and area under harvest up 3.6% to 3.6 million acres.
Oat production will increase by 59.2% to 4.5 million tons, in particular, the yield will increase by 44.1% to 90.2 bushels/acre, and the sown area will increase by 10.6% to 3.2 million acres.
