StatCan experts raise forecasts for wheat, canola and soybeans, but cut corn and barley

In yesterday's report, Statistics Canada (StatCan) experts raised their forecasts for wheat, canola and soybeans, but lowered their estimates for corn and barley production compared to FY 2023/24.

The increase in forecasts is due to improved yields in Western Canada thanks to favorable weather, but heat and moisture deficits in some areas of the prairies have reduced yield potential. Thus, in Alberta and Manitoba, the harvest will exceed last year's, and in Saskatchewan it will decrease due to drought.

According to StatCan's forecast, Canada's wheat crop in 2024/25 MR will increase by 4.3% compared to the previous season to 34.4 million tonnes (the USDA estimated it at 35 million tonnes in August), as a 5.9% increase in yield to 48.5 bushels/acre offsets a 1.6% reduction in planted area to 26 million acres. At the same time, the production of spring wheat will decrease by 0.7% to 25.4 million tons, and the production of durum wheat will increase by 47% to 6 million tons, as the sowing area will increase by 5.3% to 6.2 million acres, and the yield - by 39.8% to 35.8 bushels/acre.

Canola production will rise 1.6% to 19.5 million tons (USDA estimate of 20 million tons) as yields increase 1.8% to 39.4 bushels/acre, although area to harvest will decline 0.4% to 21.8 million acres. In Saskatchewan (the main producer of canola), production will rise 2.9% to 10.6 million tonnes thanks to a 5.4% increase in yields to 39 bushels/acre, although planted area will decrease 2.3% to 12 million acres. In Alberta, the canola crop will rise 2.4% to 5.7 million tonnes and yield will rise 2% to 39.9 bushels/acre, although planted areas will remain at last year's 6.3 million acres. In Manitoba, the harvest will decline 3.8% to 3 million tonnes due to a 9% decline in yield to 40.3 bushels/acre, although pre-harvest area will increase 5.7% to 3.3 million acres.

Soybean production in the country is expected to grow by 2.4% to 7.1 million tons thanks to a 2% increase in planted area to 5.7 million acres and a 0.4% increase in yield to 46.1 bushels/acre. In Ontario, the crop will grow by 6.9% to 4.3 million tonnes on the back of a 7.6% increase in planted area to 3.1 million acres, while in Manitoba production will decline by 14.1% to 1.3 million tonnes due to a decrease of 11.4% to 1.4 million acres.

The corn crop will decline 1.2% to 15.2 million tons (USDA estimates 14.5 million tons), as acreage declines 5.2% to 3.6 million acres, partially offsetting a 4.1% increase in yields % to 168.5 bush/acre. In Ontario (the largest producer of corn), production will decline 3% to 9.7 million tonnes due to a 4.7% decline in harvested area to 2.1 million acres, although yields will rise 1.8% to 180.1 bushels/acre .

Barley production in the country will decrease by 16.1% to 7.5 million tons in comparison with the 2023/24 financial year, in particular, the area sown by 14.3% to 5.7 million acres, and the yield by 2.1% to 59 .9 bush/acre.

At the same time, oat production will grow by 10.1% to 2.9 million tons thanks to a 14.6% increase in planted area to 2.3 million acres, which offsets a 3.8% decrease in yield to 80.7 bushels/acre.