US and Australian experts publish conflicting forecasts for the rapeseed crop

Experts of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) predict that the area of rapeseed in the country in 2024/25 MR will decrease by 4% compared to last year to 8.27 million acres or 3.35 million hectares, and the harvest will be 5.67 million tons , which will correspond to the level of the previous season, - Western Producer reports.

If the drought in the state of Western Australia, where 44% of the Australian canola crop was harvested in 2023/24 MR, continues for another month, the harvest will be significantly reduced, the transitional balance will be the lowest in 8 years and prices will rise. New South Wales and Victoria, the second and third largest producers of canola, have had favorable planting weather, but farmers are hoping for more rain by June.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts above-normal rainfall for New South Wales from May to July, while Western Australia and Victoria will see below-average rainfall.

USDA experts believe that rapeseed production in Australia will grow by 14% compared to last year to 6.5 million tons, which will be the third largest crop in history. At the same time, the sowing area will increase by 8.6% to 9.39 million acres or 3.8 million hectares.

Australia is the world's second largest canola exporter after Canada. According to the USDA, almost 70% of canola exported from Canada was shipped to the EU for biodiesel production. But in recent years, deliveries to Japan, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan and Mexico have significantly increased.