SovEkon experts increased the forecast of the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation in 2023 by 5 million tons immediately

SovEkon experts increased the wheat harvest forecast in the Russian Federation in 2023 by 5 million tons, from 87.1 to 92.1 million tons, compared to the July estimates, which exceeds the USDA's August forecast of 85 million tons and the official forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation of 78 million tons .

In addition, the forecast for barley production was increased from 18.6 to 20.9 million tons (USDA 19.1 million tons), and corn - from 14.6 to 14.8 million tons (USDA 14.6 million tons). The forecast of the total production of grain and leguminous crops was increased from 133.1 to 142.2 million tons, while the MSG of the Russian Federation estimates it at 123 million tons.

The reason for the increase in wheat and barley harvest forecasts was record yield indicators in certain regions. Thus, in the central region, the wheat harvest forecast was increased by 2.2 to 21.1 million tons, and in the Volga region - by 2.1 to 17.8 million tons. Yield estimates for Siberia and the Urals were also increased.

Weather conditions improved significantly in July and early August, especially for spring wheat crops, which will account for a third of the total crop. Although earlier, some experts believed that the summer heat in the Volga and Siberia would reduce the grain harvest.

It is already clear that official statistics in the Russian Federation lowers production data in order to manipulate the world market. At the last tender in Egypt, all 15 offers of Russian wheat had a price of $270/t FOB, which indicates the minimum sales price set by the government for exporters. The authorities of the Russian Federation are interested in the growth of wheat prices, as this will lead to an increase in the export duty, which will be spent on the war against Ukraine.