Rabobank experts predict a 20-25% decline in wheat, barley and rapeseed harvests in Australia
According to Rabobank's forecast, in FY2023/24, Australia will increase the area of winter crops by 0.3% to 23.48 million hectares compared to the previous year, which will exceed the 5-year average by 5%. However, the harvest will be lower than last year due to the drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon.
After three years of good conditions with plenty of rainfall as the country reaped near-record crops of grains and oilseeds, this year's season began with drier weather, although rainfall increased in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia in April.
It is expected that in the new season, the area of sowing of wheat, barley and legumes will increase, while that of rapeseed will decrease. Compared to the previous season, the wheat sowing area will grow by 2.9% to 13.44 million hectares (which will be 11.5% higher than the 5-year average), barley by 1.3% to 4.27 million hectares (- 10.4%), legumes - up to 1.77 million ha (-8.4%). At the same time, the area planted with canola will decrease by 8.4% to 3.32 million hectares, which will be 21.2% higher than the 5-year average. The decline in canola acreage was caused by falling prices and dry weather at the start of the season, which forced farmers to switch to cereal crops.
In the state of Queensland, the planted area will grow by 3.5%, in New South Wales - by 3.4%, in South Australia - by 0.3%, while it will decrease in Western Australia - by 2.1% (although it will exceed the average 5 -annual indicator), and Victoria - by 0.2% to 3.5 million hectares.
In case of sufficient rainfall in 2023/24 MR, wheat production will amount to 29.9 million tons (24% less than last year), barley - 10.8 million tons (-24%), rapeseed - 5.4 million tons (-35 %). Given the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, overall production may drop to a 4-year low of 41.2 million tons.
The potential for winter crops to be exported to Australia's main market in Southeast Asia remains high, especially given the drop in freight costs to 2020 levels.
