Rabobank experts raised the forecast for wheat production and lowered the estimate for the canola crop in Australia

According to the Rabobank forecast, despite unfavorable weather conditions in some major grain-growing regions, the harvest of winter crops in Australia in 2024/25 MR will grow compared to the previous season by 1% or 0.5 million tons to 47.1 million tons, which is 13 % will be inferior to the 5-year average.

So, compared to the previous season, in 2024 MR the harvest will change:

• wheat - will grow by 6% or 1.6 million tons to 27.6 million tons (8% less than the 5-year average),
• barley - will decrease by 5% or 0.5 million tons to 10.4 million tons (21% less than the average for 5 years),
• canola - will decrease by 21% or 1.2 million tons to 4.7 million tons (17% less than the 5-year average).

The reason for the decrease in canola production will be not only a reduction in the area sown, but also unfavorable weather conditions. We will remind that the official harvest forecast is 5.5 million tons, although local analysts estimate it at 5 million tons.

According to experts, prices for Australian premium white wheat at ports will be 320-360 AUD/t ($211-238/t) in late 2024 and in the first half of 2024. Prices for feed barley at ports will be 290-320 AUD/t ($191-211/t), and the discount for malting barley will be minimal, if at all, compared to wheat prices. Non-GMO canola prices in the first half of 2025 will be AUD 730-780/t ($482-515/t), while GMO canola prices will be 8-12% lower.

Canola and rapeseed prices rose sharply yesterday amid downgraded production forecasts in Australia.

November rapeseed futures on the MATIF exchange in Paris have risen by 2.1% since Monday to €511.5/t or $552/t (+3.9% for the week, +7.6% for the month), and November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange - up 2.8% to CAD 633/t or $458/t (+5.9% for the week, +7.6% for the month).

Analysts believe that stable demand for vegetable oils will support canola prices, while the EU will be forced to buy these crops within the Union or in other exporting countries after introducing a duty on the import of oil crops from the Russian Federation and Belarus.