Experts predict that Ukraine will experience a shortage of nitrogen fertilizers in the spring due to import restrictions

The Ukrainian nitrogen fertilizer market risks entering the spring sowing campaign with a deficit, said Andriy Khalyavka, CEO of GROSSDORF, in a comment to Latifundist.com.

According to him, it is not about a shortage in individual companies, but about a general lack of sufficient physical resources in the country.

"If we talk about product risks, first of all, there will be a shortage of CAS, then ammonium nitrate, urea, and then ammonium sulfate. This is not an emotional assessment, but logic that follows from production, logistics, and the structure of demand," he said.

According to the expert, even with sufficient supply on foreign markets, Ukraine will not be able to quickly import fertilizers due to logistical constraints.

"Due to security risks, the sea route is unstable, so fertilizers cannot physically arrive quickly. And imports, even if they exist, are not able to compensate for the deficit in a timely manner during the peak period," he emphasized.

Khalavka added that Polish suppliers remain an important source of products, but their volumes do not cover Ukrainian needs.

"Poland, at best, will be able to provide 10–15% of the required volume, while Ukraine's need for UAN reaches 800 thousand tons per year, of which 400 thousand tons are in the spring season. In addition, the growth of domestic demand in Poland itself intensifies competition for the resource and affects prices," the expert added.

In 2025, Ukraine significantly increased imports of mineral fertilizers, but this is still not enough to cover domestic needs. According to estimates by Infoindustria, by the end of the year, imports of nitrogen fertilizers may reach 1.9 million tons, while the total volume of imports of all types of fertilizers has already amounted to 2.99 million tons.