Experts predict low prices for crop products in the first half of the 2025/26 MY

World prices for crop products will remain low, said AgResource President Dan Basse at the conference of agricultural producers and suppliers of production facilities and services for the agricultural industry "De Margin 2025", organized by the Institute of Agricultural Market Conditions.

"Today, farmers around the world are experiencing economic problems, declining profits, and low yields, especially for winter grains. Margin indicators are now at their lowest since 2019. This is due to rising prices for fertilizers, equipment, and seeds, which will continue until 2026," Basse noted.

Global wheat trade has slowed sharply over the past five months, with China and Egypt cutting back on purchases. In the second half of the year, all countries except Turkey will cut back on wheat purchases, Basset said.

At the same time, the US Food and Agriculture Organization predicts an increase in wheat production in the 2025/26 MY by 15 million tons, but AgResource considers this forecast to be too optimistic.

The world's largest corn exporters - the USA, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and the Russian Federation - will harvest an additional 42-46 million tons of grain this season, which will increase competition on the world market. The main question is whether China will resume corn imports and purchase more than 10-12 million tons, as traders estimate, although a few years ago the country imported more than 24 million tons of corn per year.

Soybean shipments in 2025/26 MY will reach a record high, with production rising to 428 million tonnes, driven primarily by Brazil. Soybean processing volumes will also increase, boosting soybean meal supply and pushing prices to a 10-year low by the end of Q4. AgResource also forecasts increased global sunflower and rapeseed production, which will support vegetable oil prices.

"It is difficult to make a price forecast against the backdrop of many uncertainties. The US is still working on tariff policy and discussing agreements with China and the EU. Given this, AgResource experts expect a further decline in soybean and corn prices. Wheat prices may decrease by another $5-10/t under the pressure of harvesting in the EU and the Russian Federation, but further dynamics are difficult to predict now," the expert emphasized.