OSTCHEM experts predict that in 2025 the volume of the domestic nitrogen fertilizer market will grow to 3.5 million tons

Analysts at OSTCHEM (nitrogen holding Group DF) predict that the Ukrainian fertilizer market may grow from 3.2 million tons in 2024 to 3.4–3.5 million tons in 2025, said Oleg Arestarkhov, Director of Corporate Communications at Group DF.

"Our forecast is optimistic. The era of high gas prices, which accounts for about 80% of the cost of nitrogen fertilizers, is gradually ending against the backdrop of global geopolitical changes. The fundamental conditions for growth remain stable: in Ukraine, fertilizers are used in much smaller volumes than in developed countries, and this level has not yet reached pre-war indicators. Thus, the volume of nitrogen fertilizer application in Ukraine is about 86.9 kg/ha, while in the USA - 140-150 kg/ha, in Brazil - 246 kg/ha, in China - 340 kg/ha. The potential for growth is huge," he said, adding that "under a conservative scenario, growth in the next two years will be 8-10%, and under an optimistic scenario, in the event of reaching peace agreements, up to 15-18%."

"The market leaders will remain ammonium nitrate, urea, and CAS. In particular, CAS is demonstrating high dynamics due to its efficiency and the development of new production capacities in Ukraine. Currently, the market consumes about 850 thousand tons of CAS per year, and the industry's potential is estimated at 1 million tons," the expert noted.