Experts expect a reduction in olive oil production in Italy and Spain

According to estimates by the Institute of Agricultural and Food Market (Ismea), in Italy, olive oil production in 2022/23 MR will decrease compared to the previous season by 37% or 120,000 tons to 208,000 tons as a result of severe drought and reduced yields amid changes in tree fruiting cycles .

The situation of global increase in the prices of production factors increases costs, which, against the background of a decrease in harvest and production, leads to an increase in prices. Among the main olive oil producing countries, only Greece will be able to increase oil production to 300,000 tons compared to last year, while in Tunisia it will also decrease by 25%.

The harvest in Spain is coming to an end, but the final figures will be known later. The work was carried out in a short period of time to avoid the spread of diseases, which have become increasingly common in recent years. Although the drought reduced the prevalence of the olive fly, which contributed to better quality olives.

In Italy, olive trees suffered last year from a lack of rainfall and spring cold, followed by a prolonged summer heat and drought, which reduced yields. In recent years, when forecasting production, experts have to take into account many new factors, and the situation can vary significantly even in neighboring regions. Thus, in Apulia, where half of Italy's olive oil production is concentrated, the volume of production this year has decreased by 52%, in Sicily - by 25%, in Calabria - by 42%, while in the central regions it will increase, in particular in Lazio - by 17% , Tuscany and Umbria - by 27%. After last year's sharp decline in production in the northern regions, it is gradually recovering, and in Liguria it increased by 27%, but not as much as expected before the summer drought.

A decline in olive oil production could boost demand for premium sunflower oil and support prices, which have fallen significantly recently.