IGC experts again lowered the forecast for world grain production in 2024/25 MY, but increased the estimate of stocks

In a February report, IGC experts lowered their forecast for global grain production in 2024/25 MY by 4 million tonnes to 2,301 million tonnes (2,309 million tonnes in 2023/24 MY) compared to their January estimates due to a lower-than-expected corn harvest in South America. The forecast for global consumption was also lowered by 1 million tonnes to 2,334 (2,322) million tonnes.

The forecast for carryover stocks has been raised by 3 million tons to a 10-year low of 576 million tons, which would be 5% lower than the previous season.

For the 2025/26 MY, the forecast for world wheat production is increased by 1 million tons to 797 (795) million tons, and consumption is increased by 1 million tons to 806 (807) million tons, while the forecast for world trade is reduced by 1 million tons to 197 million tons, which will be 8% lower than in the previous season. The estimate of world stocks is reduced by 1 million tons to 264 million tons, which will be 3.4% lower than in the previous season.

The forecast for world corn production has been reduced by 3 million tons to 1,216 (1,231) million tons, and consumption by 1 million tons to 1,238 (1,227) million tons, but the estimate of stocks has been increased by 3 million tons to 275 million tons, which will be 8% lower than the previous season.

The forecast for global soybean production for 2024/25 MY has been reduced by 2 million tons to 418 million tons, which will exceed the 2023/24 MY figure by 5.6%, and the consumption forecast has been increased by 2 million tons to 410 (385) million tons, as a result of which the estimate of stocks has been reduced by 2 million tons to 82 (74) million tons. It is expected that soybean processing will reach a record level due to the increase in its use in the feed, food and industrial sectors.

The global rice supply and demand balance for the 2024/25 MY is largely unchanged from January estimates, with the IGC expecting record production, consumption and trade.

The IGC Grain and Oilseed Price Index (GOI) was almost unchanged from January at 221p as average export prices for grain increased and those for rice and soybeans decreased.