IGC experts lowered the forecast for world grain production in 2024/25, but it will exceed the previous season by 15 million tons

In a May report, IGC experts estimated world grain production in FY 2023/24 at 2.297 billion tons, which would exceed the 2022/23 FY harvest by 1.36%. At the same time, the grain consumption forecast was increased by 2% compared to the previous season to 2.311 billion tons, as a result of which the estimate of final stocks was reduced by 2% to 588 million tons, in particular wheat stocks – by 6%.

As a result of unfavorable weather conditions for crops in Ukraine, the Russian Federation, the USA, Argentina and the countries of Africa north of the Sahara, the forecast of world grain production in 2024/25 MR has been reduced by 10 million tons to 2312 million tons, in particular for the Russian Federation - by 5.9 to 126 .9 million tons. It will exceed the figure of the previous season by 15 million tons, since the decrease in corn production will be compensated by the increase in the harvest of other cereals.

World grain consumption in FY 2024/25 is expected to increase by 9 million tons compared to the previous season to 2.32 billion tons, so global ending stocks will decrease by 1% to a 10-year low of 580 million tons.

Thus, compared to the April estimates, the forecast of world wheat production in 2024/25 MR was reduced by 3.2 to 794.5 million tons (by 4.1 million tons more than in 2023/24 MR), in particular for the Russian Federation - from 90 .4 to 85.5 million tons. World final stocks of wheat will decrease by 6.1 to 259.8 million tons in comparison with 2023/24 MR.

The forecast of global rice production in 2024/25 MR has been increased by 3 million tons to a record 523 million tons, and ending stocks - by 1 to 171 million tons, which will exceed the previous season by 9 million tons and 3 million tons, respectively.

The forecast of world production of corn in 2024/25 FY has been reduced by 5 million tons to 1.22 billion tons (by 5 million tons less than in 2023/24 FY), and global consumption has been increased by 2 million tons to 1.226 billion tons, which will exceed the indicator of 2023/24 MR by 6 million tons. As a result, the estimate of ending stocks was reduced by 10 million tons to 281 million tons, which would be 5 million tons less than the level of the previous season.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) rose to a 4-month high thanks to a sharp jump in wheat prices due to difficult weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, including frost in the Russian Federation. The IGC GOI wheat index rose 16% to a 7-month high.

The IGC GOI Corn Index rose 4% for the month amid supply uncertainty, although supply from Ukraine was steady, helped by strong export demand.

The IGC GOI rice index also rose 4% on higher prices in Thailand amid shrinking spot supplies and stronger export demand.

The IGC GOI Soybean Index rose 9% amid crop and logistics issues in South America.