IGC experts lowered the forecast for world production and transitional grain stocks

In the August report, experts of the International Grain Council (IGC) reduced the forecast of world grain production in 2024/25 MR by 6 million tons to 2.315 billion tons (primarily due to the reduction of the harvest in the EU) compared to July estimates, which will exceed by 16 million tons the indicator of 2023/24 MR will become a new record.

The forecast of world grain consumption has been reduced by 3 million tons to 2.321 billion tons, which will exceed the production volume and the indicator of 2023/24 MR by 6 million tons. Against this background, the estimate of world reserves has been reduced to a 10-year low of 581 million tons, which will be 6 million tons lower than the level of 2023/24 FY.

The forecast of world wheat production has been reduced by 2 million tons to 799 million tons (794 million tons in 2023/24 MR), primarily due to a decrease in the estimate of the harvest in France from 31 to 27.5 (36.3) million tons. For Ukraine, the harvest forecast is unexpected increased from 23.4 to 25.4 (28.4) million tons, although according to official data, 21 million tons of grain were harvested from 97% of the areas. The estimate of the world's final stocks of wheat in 2024/25 MR was reduced by 3 million tons to 266 million tons (270 million tons in 2023/24 MR).

The forecast of world corn production was increased by 1 million tons to 1.226 (1.223) billion tons, the estimate of consumption was reduced by 1 million tons to 1.229 (1.221) billion tons, and the ending stocks – by 1 million tons to 277 (281) million tons.

The global soybean production forecast has been raised by 4 million tons to a record 419 million tons, which will be 7% higher than the 2023/24 FY, as all major oilseed producing countries will have good harvests. Consumption is expected to peak at 406 million tonnes as steady demand for soy products from the food, livestock and biofuels industries drives processing. Soy stocks will grow by 14 million tons.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) was down 45% from the previous month and 18% from the corresponding figure last year, primarily due to a drop in global soybean export prices.