IGC experts predict a decline in global wheat and corn production in 2026/27 MY after a record harvest this season

After several consecutive increases in the forecast for global grain production in 2025/26 MY in recent months, IGC experts in their February report lowered the estimate by 1 million tons to 2.46 billion tons, which would still be a record figure.

The adjustment is due to a decrease in the forecast for the barley harvest, while estimates for other crops have remained almost unchanged. Thus, the forecast for wheat production in the 2025/26 MY has been left at 842 million tons, and for corn - 1.313 billion tons.

At the same time, the soybean production forecast has been lowered by 1 million tons to 428 million tons compared to a record 429 million tons in 2024/25 MY. Due to the projected reduction in consumption, the estimate of ending soybean stocks has been increased by 2 million tons compared to January, although they will decrease in annual terms.

Ending grain stocks in the 2025/26 MY are forecast at 631 million tons, which will be the highest since the 2017/18 MY.

IGC experts also released their first forecasts for global wheat and corn production in 2026/27. The expected reduction in harvests and increased wheat consumption will complicate the balance of supply and demand. Corn production may also decline due to the projected reduction in sowing areas, despite maintaining yields at the average annual level.