IGC experts predict a 14% decline in global pea production, but prices in Ukraine remain low

According to the forecast of the International Grains Council (IGC), in the 2026/27 MY, global pea production will decrease by 13.5% compared to the previous season to 15.7 million tons due to a reduction in the harvest in the Russian Federation and Canada.

Global pea consumption is expected to decrease by 1.1% to 16.1 million tonnes, carrying stocks by 7.1% to 5.2 million tonnes, and global trade by 3.4% to 5.7 million tonnes due to reduced demand from South Asian countries.

Export demand prices for peas with plenty to India and Pakistan remain at a low level of 290-300 $/t CIF due to reduced demand from India, which has harvested a good harvest of its own. Therefore, demand prices in Ukrainian ports have fallen to 200-220 $/t or 10600-11500 UAH/t with delivery. At the same time, demand is increasing from companies that purchase at container terminals and make deliveries to other countries in small batches, so sometimes prices with delivery to terminals reach 11500-12000 UAH/t.

A large supply of feed grain at low prices is currently keeping pea prices low, and only the completion of the harvest in the Russian Federation and Canada will determine the level of supply this season, which may lead to an increase in prices in September - October.

In 2025/26, the Russian Federation increased pea production by 50% to 5.7 million tons, and its exports from 2 to 2.7 million tons (due to increased supplies to China), taking away the export leadership from Canada.

Ukraine in the 2025/26 MY also increased pea production compared to the previous season from 465 to 653 thousand tons, but exports did not exceed 300 thousand tons, which formed significant reserves. Hopes for increased exports to China have not yet materialized, so Ukrainian exporters are looking for other sales markets besides India and China.