IGC experts predict a decline in global grain stocks to a 9-year low, despite increased production

In the October report, IGC experts reduced the forecast of world grain production (wheat and fodder) in 2023/24 MR by 2 million tons to 2,292 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure by 27 million tons due to the increase in the sorghum and corn harvest, which compensates for the reduction in the production of wheat, barley and oats.

The consumption forecast was left at a record level of 2,305 million tons, which would be 2% higher than last year, including growth for feed, food and industrial use.

The forecast for world trade has been reduced by 1 million tons to 409 million tons, which will be 5% less than the 2022/23 MR indicator, due to a decrease in supplies of corn and sorghum (in particular to China), despite an increase in wheat supplies.

Given lower-than-expected starting stocks and a reduction in production forecasts, the FY 2023/24 global ending stocks estimate has been cut by 6mt to a 9-year low of 582mt, down 2% from the previous season. The reason will be a significant reduction in wheat stocks in India and China.

World wheat production in FY 2023/24 is expected to reach 784.9 million tons (803.4 million tons in FY 2022/23), which will be the second highest in history. Thus, compared to September estimates, the forecast for wheat production in the Russian Federation has been increased - from 87.4 to 89 million tons (95.4 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in Ukraine - from 25.9 to 27.4 (26.3) million tons, the USA - from 47.2 to 49.3 (44.9) million tons, while the forecast for Argentina - from 16.6 to 15.6 (12.6) million tons, Australia - from 25.4 to 24.4 (39.7) million tons, and Kazakhstan - from 13 to 12.5 (16.4) million tons due to a long drought in summer and excessive precipitation in autumn.

The global wheat export forecast was increased from 195.9 to 196.6 (207.7) million tons, in particular for the Russian Federation - from 48.6 to 49.1 (48.2) million tons, Ukraine - from 12 to 12.5 ( 17.1) million tons, the USA - from 19.1 to 19.6 (20.9) million tons, while the estimate for Argentina was reduced from 11.5 to 10.9 (4.5) million tons, Australia - from 19 to 18 (31.5) million tons and the EU - from 36.2 to 36.1 (35) million tons.

The forecast of world wheat stocks in 2023/24 MY was left at the level of 262.6 million tons compared to 281.5 million tons in 2022/23 MY.