IGC experts forecast record world grain production in 2024/25 MY

In the March report, IGC experts reduced the forecast of global grain production in 2023/24 MR by 6 million tons to 2.3 billion tons, which will exceed the previous season's figure by 2% compared to February estimates. The adjustment is due to the worsening prospects for the corn harvest in the Southern Hemisphere.

In addition, the IGC released its first forecasts for FY 2024/25, according to which cereal production will reach a record 2.33 billion tons thanks to increased wheat and feed grain yields. Grain consumption may also reach a record level due to the active use of feed.

Wheat

The production forecast for FY 2023/24 has been raised by 1 million tons to 789 million tons compared to February estimates. In FY 2024/25, production is expected to be 799 million tons.

Soy

The FY 2023/24 harvest forecast was raised by 4% to a record 390mt, thanks to a recovery in production in Argentina, which offsets lower yields in Brazil and the US. In all these countries, consumption will be maximum, so the volume of processing will increase dramatically. Trade will decrease by 3% compared to last year, including shipments to China and Argentina.

In FY 2024/25, production will grow by 6% thanks to an increase in the area sown and yield. Trade will increase by 4% due to strong shipments to Asia, Africa and the Americas, and soybean consumption and stocks will rise.

Fig

Falling harvests in major producing countries will reduce global production, supplies, consumption and inventories. As a result of the continuation of the harvest for exports from India, trade will decrease by 3% compared to the previous season.

In FY 2024/25 supply and demand will recover thanks to Asian countries, trade will be stable as Indian supplies will be well below current peaks.

Beans

The total volume of world trade in legumes will grow to 20.8 million tons in 2024 thanks to the increased demand for dry peas.

Corn

In 2024/25 MR, production will increase compared to the current season by 0.5% to 1.23 billion tons.