FAO experts, unlike USDA analysts, expect a decrease in world wheat production in 2023

FAO experts raised their forecast for world wheat production in 2023 by 0.9% to 783.3 million tons, which will be 18.4 million tons less than the record figure of 2022.

At the same time, USDA analysts in the June report increased the forecast of world wheat production by 10.43 million tons to a record 800.19 million tons, while in 2022/23 MR it was 788.5 million tons, in 2021/22 MR - 781.3 million tons, in 2020/21 MR - 775.72 million tons.

For the EU, the production forecast has been raised slightly, as favorable weather will lead to improved yields. Also, production forecasts for Canada and Kazakhstan, where sowing areas have increased, have been increased. Turkey's harvest will also exceed previous estimates, offsetting a sharp drop in production in Australia, where crop prospects have been dampened by dry weather forecasts.

World wheat stocks currently stand at 314 million tons, which is 0.9% higher than the initial 2023/24 FY, as stock estimates were raised by 5.5 million tons in July, primarily for China, the EU, and Kazakhstan.

The forecast for world trade in wheat in 2023/24 MY was increased by 1.6 million tons to 195 million tons, which will still be 3.4% less than the record indicator of 2022/23 MY. This was facilitated by expectations of increased sales in Canada and an increase in wheat imports to China compared to previous estimates.