ABARES experts significantly increase forecast for canola production in Australia

Experts from the Australian Bureau of Resources and Agricultural Economics (ABARES) in their Australian Crop Report dated September 1 increased the forecast for winter crop production in the 2026/27 MY by 12% to 61 million tonnes compared to the previous June estimates.

The reason for the adjustment in forecasts was the improvement in weather conditions in the country. Winter precipitation in the south and southeast of Australia turned out to be better than expected and provided high levels of soil moisture, which accelerated crop development by 3-4 weeks compared to average terms and contributed to their rapid maturation.

Compared to June estimates, production forecasts for major crops have been increased:

• canola - up to 7.3 million tonnes, which will be 37% above the 10-year average, although it will be 5% lower than last year's harvest of 7.7 million tonnes due to a decrease in yields in Western Australia, despite an increase in canola area by 2% to a record 9.5 million hectares,
• wheat – by 12% from 26.7 to 29.9 million tons (which will be the 8th largest harvest in history), which will exceed the 10-year average by 3%, although it will be 17% inferior to last year's harvest of 36 million tons due to an 11% reduction in sowing areas,
• barley - from 14.1 to 16.4 million tons, which will be only 3% inferior to last year's record harvest and 30% higher than the 10-year average due to a 6% increase in sown areas compared to last year.

Due to less demanding requirements and the price level of certain fertilizers, farmers this year preferred to sow barley, as opposed to wheat.