Rains in Brazil stopped the growth of soybean prices on world exchanges and in Ukraine

The other day, scattered precipitation occurred in Brazil, which did not reach the central regions of the country. This week, a new front could bring the first rains and a slight drop in temperatures to the state of Mato Grosso.

According to the AgRural agency, on September 26 soybeans in Brazil were sown on 2% of the planned area (5% last year). Thanks to the rains in the second half of September, 13% of the area has already been sown with soybeans in the main producing state of Parana.

The late onset of the rainy season will not only delay soybean planting, but will also significantly affect future second-crop corn and cotton plantings in early 2025.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday fell 0.7% to $388/t (+1.2% for the week, +4.3% for the month) amid acceleration of planting in Brazil and harvesting in the US.

As of September 29, soybeans in the US have been threshed on 26% of the area (18% on average over 5 years), and dry and warm weather will allow to speed up harvesting.

According to the NASS quarterly report, soybean stocks in the US as of September 1 amounted to 9.3 million tons, which is lower than analysts' forecast, but 2.87 million tons higher than last year's corresponding figure.

In Ukraine, on September 26, 3.5 million tons of soybeans were harvested from 1.646 million hectares or 62% (from 2.6 million hectares) of the area with a yield of 2.13 tons/ha, which allows us to hope for a harvest at the level of 6 million tons.

During the week, export purchase prices for GMO soybeans increased by UAH 100-300/t to UAH 18,200-18,400/t or $385-390/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports, while processing ones offer UAH 17,000-17,500/t with delivery to the factory.

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans for the week increased by $10-15/t to $455-465/t or UAH 21,800-22,000/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, while prices for processed soybeans increased by UAH 300-500/t to 21300-22000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

Rainfall in Brazil will soon stabilize exchange prices for soybeans, which will significantly affect purchase prices in Ukraine.