Egypt's state importers reduce wheat purchases, while private ones increase them

The share of private companies among wheat importers to Egypt is increasing, while corn purchases from South America are decreasing.

 

For the first time in two decades, in the current season, private companies increased their share of wheat imports to 75.8%, while state-owned companies reduced it to 24%, although state-owned importers usually dominated the wheat market.

 

Since December 6, state wheat imports have been managed by the Mostakbal Misr agency, which has changed its strategy to purchase grain from local companies and privately (instead of tenders) from global suppliers. The agency has no experience in international trade, so wheat imports are increasingly being transferred to the private sector.

 

From July to September, Egypt imported 3.3 million tons of wheat (626 thousand less than in the same period last year), and in total in the 2025/26 MY it will purchase 13.2 million tons of wheat, which will exceed the previous season by 300 thousand tons and will allow it to satisfy domestic consumption of 20.2 million tons.

 

Traders expect Egyptian demand to pick up in October, amid a stronger pound, after falling in September, when local ex-factory prices were competitive at (for protein 12.5%) $252-253/t CIF compared to offers of $255/t for November deliveries. Handysize freight from Russia to Egypt fell from $23/t to $21/t.

 

Platts estimates prices for Marker food wheat for November delivery at $231/t.

 

This season, Egypt reduced wheat imports from the Russian Federation compared to the previous season from 2.58 to 2 million tons, and increased supplies from Ukraine from 0.334 to 1 million tons, as Ukraine is looking for new sales markets after the introduction of quotas in the EU. Imports from Romania and Bulgaria decreased from 822 to 149 thousand tons.

 

According to forecasts by analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights, in FY 2025/26 Egypt will increase corn imports by 5% to 9.5 million tons due to an increase in domestic consumption by 9.6% to 17 million tons, primarily in the poultry industry, since the largest consumers of corn in the country are feed and starch producers.

 

Egypt traditionally buys corn from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine, but the structure of supplies is changing. In 202526 MY, the share of Brazilian corn in imports decreased compared to the previous season from 55% to 48%, Ukrainian corn from 35% to 17%, while Argentine corn increased from 8% to 24%, and supplies from the United States increased sharply from 0.7% to 8%.

 

In September and October, the market was dominated by cheap and high-quality corn from Brazil, and from November, Ukraine will increase its supply, and importers have already purchased the first batch of Ukrainian corn this season.

 

Traders are betting on higher prices amid tight supply from South America and delays in deliveries from Ukraine. Meanwhile, domestic corn prices are falling following the fall in wheat bran prices, as this affects feed formulations and reduces corn use from 70% to 60%.

 

According to Platts, on October 7, prices for Ukrainian corn were $213/t FOB POC, and for Brazilian corn – $208.55/t FOB Santos with shipment in November.