A shortage of corn supplies has led to an increase in purchase prices in Ukraine, although global quotations remain stable

Purchase prices for corn in Ukraine rose to the level of feed wheat prices this week amid limited supply from producers and forecasts of a reduced harvest.

Since Monday, export prices for corn for delivery to Black Sea ports have risen by $3-5/t to $180-185/t or UAH 8,350-8,500/t, while traders are already offering $188-189/t for delivery in December.

In 2023/24 MR, the main buyers of Ukrainian corn were Spain, China and Egypt. But this year, the corn harvest in the EU, in particular in Spain, is somewhat better, which will lead to a reduction in imports. However, the demand for Ukrainian corn will remain high against the background of forecasts of a 30% reduction in exports from Ukraine and a decrease in the corn harvest in the Russian Federation.

Currently, Ukrainian corn on the SRT-port basis is trading $20/t higher than the December futures in Chicago, which limits the further growth of its prices. In addition, the USA plans to harvest an almost record corn crop this year.

December corn futures in Chicago during the week fell 2% to $159.4/t (+1% for the month) in anticipation of the updated USDA forecast, which will be released on September 12.

In the 2024/25 FY (as of September 8), the EU increased corn imports by 20% to 3.85 million tons compared to the previous season, of which 2.3 million tons or 60% were supplied from Ukraine. The main importers this season were Spain (1.28 million tons) and the Netherlands (788 thousand tons).

November corn futures on the Paris exchange fell 0.5% during the week to €202.75/t or $223.4/t (matching last month's level), not reacting to forecasts of a reduced EU harvest and high import rates at the beginning of the season.

Traders expect lower forecasts for global corn production and stocks in a new USDA report to support quotes.

Dry and hot weather in Brazil delays the sowing of first-harvest corn and soybeans, therefore, based on the results of sowing, stock market quotations for corn in October - November may resume growth.