The European grain traders' organization COCERAL has raised its forecast for soft wheat production in the European Union and the United Kingdom in 2026, while significantly lowering its estimate for the corn harvest.
According to the updated COCERAL forecast, the gross harvest of common wheat in the EU and the UK will reach 143.7 million tonnes, compared to 142.6 million tonnes forecast in March. For comparison, last year's harvest was 150.8 million tonnes.
According to the organization's analysts, the recent heat wave in France, the largest grain producer in the EU, will not have a significant impact on yields. At the same time, the countries of the Balkan region may receive another year of high yields of winter crops. In Germany, the condition of grain crops is also assessed as good.
At the same time, the forecast for EU corn production in 2026 has been reduced by 3 million tonnes to 57.2 million tonnes, down from last year's figure of 57.8 million tonnes. Corn production in the UK remains insignificant.
COCERAL notes that the reduction in corn acreage will outweigh the expected recovery in yields after last year's drought. According to the organization, corn acreage in EU countries has decreased by more than 15% over the past decade, as farmers increasingly abandon the crop due to unstable yields and the impact of weather risks.
