Rumors about a possible restriction on the export of food wheat from Ukraine supported the quotes

Yesterday, Reuters, citing two of its own sources in the Government of Ukraine, reported that the country's authorities plan to make a decision by mid-January to restrict the export of food wheat in the 1st half of 2022.

These rumors led to a rapid increase in stock prices, although the Ukrainian grain Association and the Ministry of Agriculture denied this information. This is the second wave of rumors this season regarding the possible restriction of food wheat exports in order to reduce bread prices.

Earlier, the introduction of quotas and duties on wheat exports from Russia led to a sharp increase in world wheat prices, and helped Ukraine to step up exports.

As of December 22, Ukraine exported 15.6 million tons of wheat, which is 27% higher than last year's pace. Although the export forecast for the current season is 23-24 million tons, which is 40% higher than the 16.7 million tons shipped in 2020/21 MG.

Wheat exports from Russia are 37.5% slower than last year. According to the USDA forecast, it will reach 36 million tons, compared with 38.5 million tons in 2020/21 MG.

• Yesterday, March futures for Black Sea wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose by 6 6.5/ton to 3 344/ton (adding 2.7% since the beginning of the week), and July futures for new crop wheat – by 5 5/ton to.309/ton.

European wheat continues to rise in price, although the strengthening of the euro to 1 1,134/€ reduces its competitiveness.

• March European wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext rose 7.25 €/ton yesterday to 292.25 €/ton or 3 331.3/ton.

On US stock exchanges, speculators warmed up winter wheat prices by 4.6-5% in two days on forecasts of dry weather and frosts, which next week may damage crops not covered with snow.

March US futures rose:

• by 5 5.5 / ton to 2 299.1 / ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+4.6% in two sessions),
• by 4 4.5 / ton to H 313.7 / ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+5%),
• by 0 0.83/ton to.377.4 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Weather factors and a shortage of supplies will support wheat prices in the coming months, but increased exports of Russian wheat, which will be in a hurry to sell before the introduction of duties from February 15, will help importers close their needs against the background of a decrease in wheat exports from Ukraine, where producers postpone sales to the new year.