Another record wheat harvest in Australia will increase pressure on prices in December

Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect Australia to harvest about 35.7 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 MY, which is 1.6 million tons more than the previous season, although in the September report, USDA experts estimated the harvest at 34.5 million tons. This will increase pressure on wheat quotes in the second half of the 2025/26 season.

The country began harvesting its grain in October, and with strong yields in western Australia offsetting drought losses in parts of the south, production forecasts have been raised. The Grain Industries Association of Western Australia (GIWA), a key wheat-producing region, said in an October report that yields there could approach and possibly exceed the 2022/23 MY record of 31.1 t/ha.

At the same time, the expected increase in supply is already starting to lower wheat export prices at Australian ports, which simultaneously increases the competitiveness of local suppliers in Asian markets.

The price of Australian Premium White wheat at the port of Kuinana in the second decade of October decreased to $247/t, which is $6/t lower than at the end of September this year and $14/t lower than in the second decade of October 2024. Against the backdrop of forecasts of record global wheat production and the rapid arrival of a large harvest from the Southern Hemisphere on the market, world grain quotations may decline in the near future, according to Agroexport analysts.