Another Russian shelling of ports, ships, and oil extraction plants in Ukraine raises prices for Russian sunflower oil, supporting prices for other oils

Since December 20, the Russian occupiers have struck at least four Ukrainian oil extraction plants and transshipment terminals (of the companies Allseeds, Kernel, Bunge, Delta Wilmar), and are also constantly targeting port terminals and ships awaiting loading in order to block the operation of Ukrainian plants and export facilities.

In recent weeks, the Russian Federation has intensified attacks on the infrastructure of Kyiv and other cities in order to leave people without electricity and heat during the cold snap (which will reach -10-15 degrees in the next 7 days) and force Ukraine to retreat and agree to the Russian surrender plan proposed.

Strikes on factories and port infrastructure at Black Sea ports in recent weeks have virtually paralyzed seaborne exports from Ukraine and led to a much-needed increase in the price of Russian sunflower oil. But prices for related oils remain at the same levels as a month ago, amid rising supply and inventories.

Offer prices for Russian sunflower oil increased by $40-50/t to $1,240-1,250/t FOB over the month, which led to an increase in demand prices for sunflower oil delivered to India by $25-30/t to $1,350-1,360/t CIF Mumbai.

Demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine with delivery to ports in December also increased by $20/t to $1,240/t during the month against the backdrop of supply restrictions and the shutdown of some plants.

March SWOT soybean oil futures rose 3.9% to $1,128/t in the month, but remain broadly under speculative pressure from uncertainty over U.S. biofuel production in 2026-27. However, lower soybean prices and a new record soybean harvest in Brazil will put pressure on prices in the coming months.

Soybean oil prices in Brazil increased by $25-30/t to $1,120-1,130/t FOB during the month due to seasonal supply reduction, while prices in China increased by only $10/t to $1,180/t.

February palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange rose by 3.3% to $1,002/t in a month, but in the national currency, prices have remained stable for two months (4,000 ringgit/t) under pressure from a 10-month increase in inventories in Malaysia.

The 8% increase in oil prices in a week to $65/barrel (+8.3% in a month) against the backdrop of the US kidnapping of Venezuelan President Maduro has become the main factor in the increase in vegetable oil prices. At the same time, the increase in both oil and vegetable oil prices is due only to speculative factors, while fundamental factors in the form of increased supply and unsold stocks will manifest themselves later.