Another decline in barley harvest forecasts in Canada and Russia supports world prices
In the September report, USDA experts lowered the forecast for barley production in 2021/22 MG by 0.16 million tons to 149.28 million tons, which will be 10.96 million tons lower than the 160.24 million tons collected in 2020/21 MG.
The reduction in barley production in the main exporting countries – Canada by 1 million tons to 7.8 million tons (10.74 million tons last year) and Russia – by 1 million tons to 18 million tons (20.63 million tons last year) will be partially offset by an increase in the harvest in Australia by 1 million tons to 12 million tons (13 million tons last year), Ukraine by 0.5 million tons to 10.5 million tons (7.95 million tons) and the EU by 0.2 million tons to 54.6 million tons (55.49 million tons).
The forecast for barley exports in my 2021/22 was raised for Australia by 0.6 million tons to 7 million tons, the EU – by 0.3 million tons to 7.3 million tons (7.1 million tons) and Ukraine by 0.2 million tons to 6 million tons (4.23 million tons in my 2020/21), but lowered for Canada by 0.7 million tons to 2 million tons.
From July 1 to September 9, Russia exported only 0.9 million tons of barley, which is 43.7% less than on the same date last year. As of September 10, 17.3 million tons of barley were threshed in Russia from 7.2 million hectares or 90% of the area, so the total harvest will not exceed 18 million tons. against the background of a decrease in the corn harvest, domestic demand for Feed Grain will increase, which may prevent the country from exporting 5 million tons of barley.
The forecast for barley imports was raised for Turkey by 0.2 LN tons to 1.2 million tons, Vietnam by 0.2 million tons to 0.8 million tons and Thailand by 0.1 million tons to 1.2 million tons.
In Ukraine, purchase prices for Barley against the background of active demand from exporters remain in ports at the level of 2 240-245/ton or UAH 7300-7400/ton, despite a slight decrease in prices for feed wheat and corn.
In my 2021/22, Ukraine has already exported 3 million tons of barley,which is 20% ahead of last year's pace and exceeds half of the export volume predicted by local experts for the current season of 5-5. 5 million tons.in July, a record 1.1 million tons of barley were exported for this month(31% more than in July 2020), and in August exports reached a historically maximum of 1.7 million tons (+26%).
The main buyer of domestic barley remains China, which purchased 57% of the exported volume or 1.6 million tons. the second place is occupied by Turkey with a share of 13% or 363.6 thousand tons, the third – Saudi Arabia – 9% or 247.1 thousand tons.
The small supply of Russian barley increases demand for Ukrainian barley, as Australian barley will appear on the market only in December.