Due to rainfall in eastern Russia, the wheat harvest forecast may decrease

The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia will receive final assessments of the expected grain harvest from the regions by the end of this week to adjust the harvest forecast for 2024.

Due to challenging weather conditions, there is a lag in work progress in the Urals, Siberia, and the Volga region. Because of significant rainfall in September, the grain harvest has been completed on only 50-60% of the areas, and in the Volga, Ural, and Siberian Federal Districts, 8 million hectares of grains (mainly spring wheat) remain to be harvested, while across the country as a whole—10.6 million hectares of grain crops.

According to operational data, a total of 78% of grain areas have been harvested in Russia, yielding 105.9 million tons of grain, including 77.7 million tons of wheat.

It should be recalled that the wheat harvest forecasts in Russia were at the level of 82-83 million tons.

Forecasts for the coming week indicate improved weather conditions, which will allow harvesting to accelerate, although some crops will have to be written off.

At the same time, the weather in Kazakhstan is favorable for harvesting a good crop, and according to the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan, this year's grain harvest is expected to be at least 20 million tons.

As of today, 11.3 million hectares of grain and leguminous crops have been harvested in Kazakhstan, or 67.9%. With an average yield of 14.7 centners per hectare, 16.7 million tons of grain have been threshed. The total harvesting area of agricultural crops in the country this year is 23.3 million hectares.

Another reduction in the wheat harvest forecast in Russia may exert strong pressure on global wheat prices in the near future, although the increase in production in Kazakhstan will somewhat offset this decline.