Brazil's Conab agency left the country's soybean crop forecast at a much lower level than the USDA

In its August report, the Brazilian agency Conab left the forecast for the soybean harvest in the country in 2023/24 at the level of 147.38 million tons, which would be 4.7% less than in 2022/23. At the same time, the USDA in August left the forecast for soybean production in Brazil in 2023/24 at the level of 153 million tons, and in 2024/25 at the level of 169 million tons.

Conab's soybean export forecast in FY 2023/24 remained at 92.4 million tons, while USDA raised it by 2 to 105 million tons, compared to 96 million tons in FY 2022/23.

Conab experts believe that in 2023/24, grain production in Brazil will decrease compared to the previous season by 21.2 million tons to 298.6 million tons, primarily due to a decrease in the average yield of agricultural crops, the impact of unfavorable climatic conditions on the development of first crops, in particular, from the beginning of sowing to the reproduction phases of agricultural crops.

In the areas sown in September-October in the Central-Western, South-Eastern and Matopib regions, high temperatures and low rainfall led to reseeding of fields and reduced plant productivity, while similar situations did not occur in late sowings.

According to Crop Progress, second-crop maize has been harvested in 90% of the area and production is estimated at 90.28 million tonnes. Yields this season varied significantly, depending on the applied technical package and mainly on the timing of sowing. Crops sown at the ideal timing, i.e. from January to mid-February, had yields within expectations and even higher than those recorded in the last harvest, primarily due to regular rainfall during the growing season. The exceptions were the states of Paraná, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, where dry periods in March and April, combined with high temperatures and pest attacks, reduced yield potential.

Against the backdrop of a decrease in productivity, the area allocated to corn, both of the second and first harvest, also decreased, so the total production of corn in Brazil in 2023/24 MR will decrease compared to the previous season by 12.3% to 115.65 million tons, which will be significantly lower than the USDA forecast of 122 million tons.