Brazil has harvested soybeans from more than half of the planned areas, but sales rates are much lower than average

According to AgRural, as of March 7, the soybean harvesting campaign in Brazil was completed on 55% of the planned areas, which is slightly lower than last year's 53% at the same date. Harvesting rates have slowed slightly due to rainfall, which, on the other hand, improves conditions for planting and developing the second crop of corn, safrinha, which is planted on 93% of the planned areas (compared to 82% the previous year). According to experts' estimates, the final stage of planting is mostly taking place under favorable weather conditions, and cereal crops are developing normally. Weather forecasts for the next 7-10 days predict further favorable rains in central and northern Brazil, as well as in the southern regions early next week.

Meanwhile, the local agency Conab has lowered its estimate of soybean production in Brazil by about 2.6 million tons to 146.858 million tons. The agency has also reduced the total volume of corn production to 112.753 million tons from the February forecast of 113.696 million tons.

According to the consulting company Safras & Mercado, sales of the 2023/24 crop soybeans in Brazil account for only 36.6% of the forecast production volume, which is below the average for this period - 50.1%. However, considering the sharp increase in production over the past two seasons, sales do not lag behind quantitatively and amount to about 54.5 million tons compared to 62-65 million tons on average. Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazilian farmers will produce about 149.1 million tons of soybeans this season, and currently about 90-95 million tons remain unsold.

"Farmer sales are progressing because producers need cash despite falling grain prices," said Luis Fernando Roque, a soybean analyst at Safras, in a separate comment sent to Reuters. "At times when the market stopped falling, farmers' sales increased, but, of course, sales rates remain below average."
He noted that Brazilian soybean producers will try to keep as much of their crop as possible until prices improve. Increased supply of Argentine soybeans and soy products in the coming months will not improve the price situation on the global soybean market, which will slow down sales by Brazilian farmers.