Brazil increases soybean oil exports by 47% thanks to record harvest

Brazil has increased its soybean oil exports this season by 47% year-on-year to a two-decade high, thanks to a record soybean harvest, high processing rates and lower-than-expected domestic demand, leaving the market with a supply glut.

 

Brazil is the world's largest soybean producer and is currently processing a record crop, but the market has been oversupplied due to a delay in a decision to change mandatory biofuel blending standards. To balance the market, processors are trying to export more of their products.

 

At Brazil’s domestic export terminals, soybean oil prices have risen much more slowly than in Chicago, where they have risen 56% since the start of the war. At the main port of Paranagua, soybean oil discounts have reached their highest level since 2023, improving the competitiveness of Brazilian oil and stimulating export sales.

 

Significant processing volumes and low domestic prices forced exporters to increase supplies to major importers – India, Bangladesh, and North African countries.

 

Since spring 2026, processing plants have been operating at maximum capacity. In March alone, the volume of soybean processing amounted to 5 million tons, which is 10% higher than the average of previous years.

 

According to the forecast of the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (ABIOVE), in the 2025/26 MY, the volume of soybean processing will reach a record 62.5 million tons, exceeding the previous maximum of 58.9-59 million tons in the 2024/25 season.

 

Soybean meal production is expected to reach 48.1 million tonnes and soybean oil production to a record 12.55 million tonnes (up from 11.7 million tonnes in 2024/25 MY). Accordingly, soybean oil exports are expected to rise to 1.6 million tonnes, although some analysts have raised export estimates to 2 million tonnes.

 

According to the forecast of the Conab agency, in the 2025/26 MY, soybean production in Brazil will reach a record 180.1 million tons, and the total grain harvest will be 358 million tons. Analysts believe that the large harvest and the delay in legislative changes in the biofuel sector will further affect the dynamics of soybean oil exports from Brazil.