Brazil begins 2025/26 season with high harvest rates and increased crop forecasts

According to analysts, as of January 30, soybeans were harvested in Brazil on 10% of the area (6% last year), and in the largest state - the soybean producer - on almost 25% of the area (12.2% last year, 12.6% on average over 5 years).

This year, the country's soybean acreage increased by 4% to a record 49.1 million hectares, which, against the backdrop of favorable weather throughout the season, allowed analysts to significantly increase harvest forecasts.

On Monday, agricultural consulting companies raised their forecasts for soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 MY due to better-than-expected yield figures.

Thus, the AgRural agency increased its forecast compared to January estimates by 4.9 million tons to 181 million tons, the StoneX agency - by 4 million tons to 181.62 million tons, the Celeres agency - by 4.1 million tons to 181.3 million tons, while the USDA in its January report increased its forecast from 175 to 177 million tons (compared to 171.5 million tons in the 2024/25 MY).

A record soybean harvest will boost supply in Q1 2026, pushing down global prices, which are currently supported by a severe drought in Argentina that is negatively affecting the crop. However, rainfall forecast for the coming days could improve the country's crop conditions and reduce price pressure.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of January 28, almost 66% of soybean crops in Argentina had optimal or sufficient soil moisture levels, while 30% of the crops had critically low levels. In the provinces of Buenos Aires and Cordoba, soybean crops are in the flowering phase, and in Santa Fe, they have entered the grain filling stage. Overall, the condition of the crops is quite good, although during January 1-25, only 36 mm of precipitation fell in the province of Buenos Aires (50% less than normal), and in Cordoba – 62 mm of precipitation (-35%).