Stock prices for wheat accelerated their decline amid improved crop conditions in the US, which increases pressure on prices in Ukraine

Wheat prices on global exchanges remain under pressure from weak demand from importers and increased supplies from Argentina and Australia, which are harvesting crops.

Yesterday, against the background of improved conditions of crops in the USA and forecasts of precipitation in the USA, Ukraine and the south-east of the Russian Federation, quotations fell by another 1-2.3%, having decreased from the beginning of the week by 3-5.8%.

Yesterday, December futures fell:

• by 2.1% to $198.8/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-5.8% from Monday),
• by 1% to $198.7/t – for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (-4.3%).
• by 1.2% to $209.8/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-4.2%).
• by 2.3% to €209.5/t or $220.9/t December wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (-3%).

According to Crop Progress from NASS USDA, as of November 10, 91% of U.S. winter wheat acreage was planted (5-year average of 93%), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 3% to 44% (47% last year ). Precipitation forecast for the next 7-10 days across the Midwest and US Plains will continue to improve crop conditions.

On November 12, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Jordan held a tender for the purchase of 120,000 tons of flour wheat of arbitrary origin, where it purchased 60,000 tons of wheat for shipment on February 1-15, 2025 at a price of $269/t C&F, which is $2/t lower than the previous price tender on November 6, where 60,000 tons of wheat were contracted for shipment on February 1-15 at a price of $271/t C&F Aqaba.

In 2024/25, the EU MR reduced wheat imports compared to the previous season by 3% to 3.24 million tons, 71% or 2.29 million tons of which were supplied from Ukraine.

Purchase prices in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine during the week remained at the level of $210-214/t or UAH 9,800-10,100/t for food wheat and $203-205/t or UAH 9,500-9,600/t for fodder wheat. After the previous week's price increase, the number of offers from farmers increased, allowing processors to lower prices slightly.

The pace of wheat exports from Ukraine is decreasing. For November 1-13, 460,000 tons were shipped (594,000 tons for this period last year), and in total, 8.2 million tons of wheat were exported in 2024/25 MR, which is 58% higher than the corresponding indicator of the previous season (5.22 million tons) and is half of the export volume agreed upon in the Memorandum.

Rusagrotrans experts expect that in 2025/26 MY, the area under wheat will decrease by 900 thousand hectares to 16.3 million hectares, and after wintering, they may decrease to 15.4 million hectares, which will be the lowest indicator since 2018/19 MY. At the same time, the harvest will amount to 84.5 million tons compared to 82 million tons in the current season.