Exchange prices for wheat recovered slightly after the fall

Wheat quotes on world stock exchanges are falling amid improved conditions for winter crops in Ukraine, Russia and the EU, as well as forecasts of an increase in production next season.

Due to slow wheat exports from the EU and Russia, forecasts for transitional stocks are rising, which increases pressure on the prices of both the old and new crops.

But wheat prices are supported by the neighboring corn market, where prices are rising on concerns about the South American Harvest. If corn production in Argentina and Brazil meets forecasts, then in March – April, pressure on the wheat and corn markets will increase, especially against the background of unsatisfactory export rates of the old crop and low prices for wheat of the new crop. 

• March European wheat futures on Paris Euronext after falling on Monday by €12.75/ton yesterday rose by €3.25/ton to €269.25/ton or €309.56/ton, and September – by €2.5/ton to € 253.5/ton, which is almost in line with the level of the previous month.

Jordan purchased at the tender 60 thousand tons of European food wheat of the new crop at a price of 3 326/ton C&F for delivery in the second half of August 2022, while delivery prices in March – April reached 3 360-375/ton C&F.

Tunisia today will hold a tender for the purchase of 100 thousand tons of soft wheat, which will become an additional indicator of prices for European wheat.

• March futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago after falling on Monday by 7 7/ton yesterday rose by вчора 1/ton to 3 316/ton. however, the downward trend that began in November will continue against the background of good forecasts for the future harvest.

According to forecasts of Russian experts, in 2022 the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the Russian Federation will grow by 7.4% compared to the previous year to 129.6 million tons, in particular wheat – up to 82 million tons, barley – up to 19.1 million tons, corn – up to 15.5 million tons.

Currently, about 3% of winter crops are in poor condition, which is significantly less than last year and more than 10% on average over several years. In most fields of Russia, crops are covered with a thick layer of snow, which will allow them to successfully overwinter.

In the US, wheat prices recovered slightly after falling 1.5-3.4% on Monday, but remain at a low level due to the poor condition of winter crops. Traders expect an increase in the area of spring wheat sowing due to a reduction in the area under corn due to the rise in the price of fertilizers.

March wheat futures rose:

• by 2 2.85 / ton to Чикаго 282.6/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 1 1.84 / ton to H 288.9/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 3 3.12/ton to.336.2 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.