Exchange wheat quotations resumed growth, and in Ukraine prices are supported by high demand from processors

The decrease in world prices for wheat during the last two weeks led to a drop in purchase prices in the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, which allowed processors to increase the volume of purchases.

During the week, demand prices in the ports decreased by 50-100 UAH/t to 9700-10000 UAH/t or 209-212 $/t for food and 9400-9450 UAH/t or 202-204 $/t for fodder wheat. At the same time, processors raised prices by UAH 100-200/t to UAH 9,500-10,200/t with delivery to the mill, which immediately increased offers from farmers.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, as of November 18, 5.06 million hectares or 98% of the planned area were sown with winter grains in Ukraine, in particular, 4.4 million hectares (97%) were planted with wheat.

After a two-week decline, wheat quotations on world exchanges rose yesterday against the background of heavy shelling of Ukraine and the probable increase in escalation after the authorization of strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation by Western missiles with a range of up to 300 km.

Improvements in the state of crops in the US and harvesting in Australia and Argentina are restraining the speculative growth of quotations, but March futures are trading 2.5-3.5% higher than December ones.

Yesterday, December futures rose:

• by 2% to $201.1/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-3.3% for the week),
• by 2.8% to $204/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-0.9%).
• by 2.2% to $215/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-1.4%).
• by 0.8% to €218/t or $231/t - wheat futures on Paris Euronext (+0.8%).

According to NASS USDA's Crop Progress, as of November 17, 94% of U.S. winter wheat acreage was planted (96% 5-year average), and the number of crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 5% to 49% (47% last year ). Exports of wheat from the USA for the week fell by 44.5% to 196.3 thousand tons, and in general in the season they will reach 10.325 million tons, which is 31.37% ahead of last year's pace.

Wheat sowing in the EU is accelerating, and in France, where rains delayed work, 78% of the planned area has already been sown (70% last year). According to the forecast of Strategie Grains, the winter wheat sowing area in the EU for the 2025 harvest will grow by 5% to 21.4 million hectares thanks to high prices and favorable autumn weather.

According to the Australian Statistics Agency, in 2023/24 FY the country exported 19.59 million tons of wheat, which is 38% less than the record figure of 2022/23 FY (31.67 million tons), and this year it will be able to export almost 25 million tons.